Mortgage rates today, June 11 and rate predictions for next week
Today’s Mortgage and Refinance Rates
Yesterday, average mortgage rates climbed exceptionally quickly. And what had been a modestly bad week for these rates turned into a really terrible week. Read on for the grisly details.
Mortgage rates often fall after an unusually sharp change. And I shouldn’t be surprised if they pull back a bit next Monday and Tuesday, but don’t expect them to recoup all or even most of yesterday’s losses. From next Wednesday, it is not known where they will move. Because crucial Federal Reserve announcements (more on those below) are due that day.
Current mortgage and refinance rates
|Program||Mortgage rate||APR*||To change|
|30-year fixed conventional||5.762%||5.785%||+0.11%|
|15-year fixed conventional||4.845%||4.875%||+0.18%|
|20-year fixed conventional||5.775%||5.812%||+0.21%|
|10-year fixed conventional||4.781%||4.866%||+0.11%|
|30-year fixed FHA||5.554%||6.296%||+0.23%|
|15-year fixed FHA||5.07%||5.477%||+0.06%|
|30-year fixed PV||5.019%||5.235%||-0.05%|
|15-year fixed VA||5.622%||5.975%||Unchanged|
|Pricing is provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your rate may be different. Click here for a personalized quote. See our rate assumptions here.|
Should you lock in a mortgage rate today?
Don’t lock in on a day when mortgage rates look set to drop. My recommendations (below) are intended to provide longer-term suggestions on the general direction of these rates. Thus, they do not change daily to reflect fleeting sentiments in volatile markets.
Last week I wrote here: “Markets continue to show unusual volatility.” Boy, was it true. The magnitude of yesterday’s mortgage rate hike was not unprecedented. But it was extremely rare.
We could (without guarantee) see some interesting falls early next week. But on Wednesday afternoon, the Federal Reserve will release a report and hold a press conference. And mortgage rates could move in response to that. Whether they go up or down will depend on what the Fed says. But I guess large, sustained drops are unlikely.
And so, my personal rate lock recommendations remain:
- TO BLOCK if closing seven days
- TO BLOCK if closing 15 days
- TO BLOCK if closing 30 days
- TO BLOCK if closing 45 days
- TO BLOCK if closing 60 days
However, with so much uncertainty right now, your instincts could easily turn out to be as good as mine, or even better. So let your instincts and personal risk tolerance guide you.
What’s Moving Current Mortgage Rates
According to data from Mortgage News Daily (MND), the average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose 30 basis points yesterday (one basis point equals one-hundredth of 1%). In other words, they went from 5.55% to 5.85%. This is truly an extraordinary increase in just one day.
This rise was driven by a worse than expected consumer price index released yesterday morning. In early May, investors had reason to hope that inflation was stabilizing. That’s why mortgage rates fell for about three weeks that month.
But yesterday’s index showed inflation continuing to climb – and at its fastest pace in 40 years. Mortgage rates ended the day at their highest level since November 2008, according to the MND.
Yesterday, investors had in mind the Fed’s reaction to the new inflation data. He has a two-day meeting starting next Tuesday. And it will wrap up the next day with a statement and screenings (2 p.m. ET) and a press conference (2:30 p.m. ET). These events are always followed closely by the markets. But I doubt many have been watched more carefully than this one will be.
What could the Fed do?
What might the bad news look like? Well, the Fed could announce that it will raise rates more often and by larger amounts. We are already expecting a 0.5% rise next week and another after its July meeting. Could he enter such increases for the three other meetings it will hold this year? Could that even make one or more of those 0.75% increases? We will find out next Wednesday.
We’ll also know on that day if yesterday’s inflation report affected the Fed’s thinking about its holdings of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) – the type of bond that largely determines rates. mortgages. Last Wednesday, his holdings were worth $2.7 trillion. And that gives it tremendous power over those rates.
The Fed has already announced that it will reduce its holdings of MBS, which should put upward pressure on mortgage rates. But if it accelerates those plans – and perhaps announces that it will start selling MBS sooner than expected – that could push those rates even higher.
What this means for mortgage rates
The markets are already expecting a tightening of the Fed’s line next Wednesday. And yesterday was their price in this expectation. If the real line is softer than expected, mortgage rates could fall that day. If they are roughly in line with these expectations, these rates could hardly move.
However, if the Fed gets unexpectedly aggressive, it could be a bad day – and week and month – for these rates. We are already dangerously close to 6% mortgage rates this morning.
Economic reports next week
Next week will likely be dominated by this Wednesday’s announcements from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which we discussed in detail in the last section. And that risks overshadowing the important economic report of the week, retail sales in May, which is due out just hours before Fed events.
Naturally, anything related to inflation will attract investors’ attention. That includes the New York Fed’s inflation projections for the next one and three years, due Monday. And Tuesday’s producer price index.
The potentially most important reports below are highlighted in bold. The others are unlikely to move the markets much unless they contain surprisingly good or bad data.
- Monday – New York Fed Inflation Expectations in the next one and three years
- Tuesday – Producer price index for the final request
- Wednesday – FOMC statement, projections and press conference. More May retail sales
- Thursday — May starts. Plus, new weekly unemployment insurance claims through June 11
- Friday — May Index of industrial production, including capacity utilization
Everything revolves around Wednesday.
Mortgage interest rate forecast for next week
I wouldn’t be at all surprised if mortgage rates were to drop next Monday and Tuesday. Such declines are common – although far from inevitable – after strong increases like yesterday’s. Don’t expect these rates to be more than a fraction (if any) of their Friday losses.
Next Wednesday and after is another story. As explained in detail above, everything will depend on what the Fed says on that day.
Mortgage and refinance rates generally move in tandem. And the removal of unfavorable market refinancing charges last year has largely eliminated the gap that had grown between the two.
Meanwhile, another recent regulatory change has likely made mortgages for investment properties and vacation homes more accessible and less expensive.
How your mortgage interest rate is determined
Mortgage and refinance rates are typically determined by prices in a secondary market (similar to stock or bond markets) where mortgage-backed securities are traded.
And it depends heavily on the economy. Thus, mortgage rates tend to be high when things are going well and low when the economy is struggling.
But you play an important role in determining your own mortgage rate in five ways. And you can affect it significantly by:
- Shop around for your best mortgage rate – They vary widely from lender to lender
- Boost your credit score – Even a small bump can make a big difference to your rate and payments
- Save the biggest down payment possible – Lenders like you to have real skin in this game
- Keep your other borrowings small — The lower your other monthly commitments, the higher the mortgage you can afford
- Choose your mortgage carefully – Are you better off with a conventional, conforming, FHA, VA, USDA, jumbo or other loan?
Time spent getting these ducks in a row can earn you lower rates.
Remember it’s not just a mortgage rate
Be sure to factor in all of your homeownership costs when calculating how much mortgage you can afford. So focus on your “PITI”. It’s your Pprincipal (repays the amount you borrowed), IInterest (the price of the loan), (the property) Jaxes, and (owners) Iinsurance. Our mortgage loan calculator can help you.
Depending on your type of mortgage and the amount of your down payment, you may also need to pay for mortgage insurance. And that can easily hit three figures every month.
But there are other potential costs. So you will have to pay homeowners association dues if you choose to live somewhere with an HOA. And, wherever you live, you should expect repair and maintenance costs. There is no owner to call when things go wrong!
Finally, you will have a hard time forgetting closing costs. You can see those reflected in the annual percentage rate (APR) that lenders will quote you. Because it spreads them effectively over the term of your loan, making it higher than your normal mortgage rate.
But you may be able to get help with those closing costs. and your down payment, especially if you are a first-time buyer. Lily:
Down payment assistance programs in every state for 2021
Mortgage Rate Methodology
Mortgage reports receive daily rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average a range of prices, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the market. In addition, we average rates for the same types of loans. For example, fixed FHA with fixed FHA. The result is a good overview of the daily rates and their development over time.
The information contained on The Mortgage Reports website is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute advertising for products offered by Full Beaker. The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not reflect the policy or position of Full Beaker, its officers, parent company or affiliates.