Mortgage and refinancing rates today, November 5 | Falling rates

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Today’s Mortgage and Refinance Rates

Average mortgage rates fell an interesting amount yesterday, which defied my prediction. Once again, the markets started the day signaling one thing and then changed their mind over the hours. Keep in mind how common this phenomenon has become when reading my daily forecast.

So far this morning it seems that mortgage rates today could fall further. But that’s surprising, given the excellent jobs report released earlier. And the markets could turn around later.

Find your lowest rate. Start here (November 5, 2021)

Current mortgage and refinancing rates

Program Mortgage rate APR* Switch
Conventional 30 years fixed 3.199% 3.215% -0.04%
Conventional 15 years fixed 2.58% 2.608% -0.02%
Conventional 20 years fixed 2.991% 3.025% Unchanged
Conventional 10 years fixed 2.54% 2,598% + 0.02%
30-year fixed FHA 3,189% 3.95% -0.02%
15 years fixed FHA 2,551% 3,195% -0.01%
5/1 ARM FHA 2.509% 3,154% -0.03%
Fixed VA over 30 years 3.052% 3,245% -0.01%
VA fixed 15 years 2,741% 3.082% Unchanged
5/1 ARM VA 2,553% 2,372% -0.01%
Prices are provided by our network of partners and may not reflect the market. Your rate may be different. Click here for a personalized quote. See our pricing assumptions here.

Should you lock in a mortgage rate today?

I’m happy to cede this section today to Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist Sam Khater, who said in a statement yesterday:

As mortgage rates have fallen after several weeks of increases, we expect further increases due to stronger economic data and the Federal Reserve’s withdrawal from its stimulus measures.

Statement by Freddie Mac, November 4, 2021

My personal rate foreclosure recommendations therefore remain:

  • LOCK if the closure 7 days
  • LOCK if the closure 15 days
  • LOCK if the closure 30 days
  • LOCK if the closure 45 days
  • LOCK if the closure 60 days

> Related: 7 tips for getting the best refinance rate

Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates

Here is a look at the state of play this morning around 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data, compared to around the same time yesterday, was as follows:

  • The 10-year Treasury bill yield fell to 1.49% from 1.56%. (Good for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates normally tend to follow these particular yields of Treasury bonds.
  • Main stock market indices were higher soon after opening. (Bad for mortgage rates.) When investors buy stocks, they often sell bonds, which lowers bond prices and increases yields and mortgage rates. The reverse can happen when the indices are lower. But it’s an imperfect relationship
  • Oil price fell to $ 79.62 from $ 82.87 a barrel. (Good for mortgage rates *.) Energy prices play an important role in creating inflation and also indicate future economic activity.
  • Gold price rose to $ 1,800 from $ 1,796 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) In general, it’s better for rates when gold goes up, and worse when gold goes down. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to cut rates
  • CNN Corporate Fear and Greed Index – went from 83 out of 100 to 85. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) when they exit the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower readings are better than higher ones

* A change of less than $ 20 in gold prices or 40 cents in oil prices is a fraction of 1%. We therefore only count significant differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.

Warnings about markets and rates

Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and make a pretty good guess at what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But this is no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are generally right. But our accuracy record won’t hit its former high levels until things calm down.

So use the markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to lean on them. But, with this caveat, mortgage rates now seem likely to fall. But be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change direction during the day) are a common feature these days.

Find your lowest rate. Start here (November 5, 2021)

Important Notes on Today’s Mortgage Rates

Here are some things you should know:

  1. Typically, mortgage rates rise when the economy is doing well and fall when it is struggling. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How Mortgage Rates Are Determined and Why You Should Care About Them
  2. Only “top” borrowers (with exceptional credit scores, large down payments and very healthy finances) get the ultra low mortgage rates you’ll see advertised.
  3. Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate moves – although they generally all follow the larger trend over time.
  4. When daily rate changes are small, some lenders adjust closing costs and leave their fee schedules unchanged.
  5. Refinancing rates are generally close to those for purchases. And a recent regulatory change has narrowed a gap that previously existed

So there is a lot going on here. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the hours, days, weeks or months to come.

Are mortgage and refinancing rates going up or down?

Mortgage rates have fallen in recent weeks. Indeed, those on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages fell from a six-month high on Oct. 25 to a one-month low yesterday, according to Mortgage News Daily records.

And yet, I urged readers to lock in their rates as soon as possible throughout this period. How to come?

Well, I sincerely believe that the recent falls are just a break in a strong and persistent uptrend. And I have three main reasons for this belief:

  1. The Federal Reserve has confirmed that it will start reducing its support for artificially low mortgage rates from this month
  2. Inflation is always between hot and hot. And that means that investors’ fixed income on mortgage bonds is in fact losses in real terms. The yields on these bonds largely determine mortgage rates and they must rise to continue to attract investment.
  3. The economic recovery can only be helped by the drop in the number of new daily COVID-19 infections in America. The numbers are starting to level off now. But they went from 285,058 on September 13 to 84,688 yesterday, according to The New York Times (paying). An improving economy almost always leads to higher mortgage rates

Of course, other forces (including supply chain issues and a stubbornly low employment rate) are trying to push mortgage rates down. But, in my opinion, the three that push them higher should be stronger in the weeks and months to come.

For more information, read last Saturday’s weekend edition of these Daily Reports.

Recently

Through much of 2020, the overall trend for mortgage rates was clearly downward. And a new all-time low was set 16 times last year, according to Freddie Mac.

The most recent weekly record low occurred on January 7, when it stood at 2.65% for 30-year fixed rate mortgages.

Since then, the picture has been mixed with extended periods of ups and downs. Unfortunately, since September the increases have accelerated, but not consistently.

Freddie’s November 4 report puts this weekly average for 30-year fixed rate mortgages at 3.09% (with 0.7 fees and points), down against 3.14% the previous week.

Expert mortgage rate forecasts

In the longer term, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting developments in the economy, the real estate sector and mortgage rates. .

And here are their current rate forecasts for the remaining current quarter of 2021 (Q4 / 21) and the first three quarters of 2022 (Q1 / 22, Q2 / 22 and Q3 / 22).

The figures in the table below are for 30-year fixed rate mortgages. Fannie’s and Freddie’s were released on October 15 and the MBAs on October 18.

Forecaster T4 / 21 T1 / 22 T2 / 22 Q3 / 22
Fannie Mae 3.1% 3.2% 3.2% 3.3%
Freddie mac 3.2% 3.4% 3.5% 3.6%
MBA 3.1% 3.3% 3.5% 3.7%

However, given so many unknowables, the entire current crop of forecasts may be even more speculative than usual.

All of these forecasts call for at least slightly higher mortgage rates soon enough.

Find your lowest rate today

Some lenders have been frightened by the pandemic. And they limit their offers to the more vanilla mortgages and refinances.

But others remain courageous. And you can still probably find the cash refinance, investment mortgage, or jumbo loan that you want. Just shop more widely.

But, of course, you should be doing a lot of comparison regardless of what type of mortgage you want. As a federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau said:

Shopping around for your mortgage can save you money. It may not seem like much, but saving even a quarter of a point of interest on your mortgage saves you thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.

Check your new rate (Nov 5, 2021)

Mortgage rate methodology

Mortgage Reports receive daily rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners. We arrive at an average rate and an APR for each type of loan to display in our graph. Because we average a range of rates, it gives you a better idea of ​​what you might find in the market. In addition, we average the rates for the same types of loans. For example, fixed FHA with fixed FHA. The end result is a good overview of the daily rates and how they have changed over time.


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